Both Conservative and Labour parties have suffered losses in the European Parliament elections. With the Brexit Party, Liberal Democrats, and Green party making gains.
It can be comfortably assumed that the Brexit party mostly hoovered up the votes of the collapsing UKIP and siphoned the “Brexit at all costs” Conservative and Labour voters. The Liberal Democrats and Green Party gained support from remain leaning Labour and Conservative voters.
So what can we make from this? That the country is as divided as it ever was, if not more so – the positions have likely become more entrenched.
So is this shift towards pro remain and leave parties a one-off and to an extent a political statement, or are we moving away from the two party system and could this affect a general election?
In 2015, just two-thirds of the electorate voted Conservative or Labour. But in the 2017 General Election, the two major parties won over 82 per cent of the vote between them.
The swing would seem to be hugely influenced by strong Brexit sentiment, but populism is on the rise around Europe, and in many neighbouring countries the two main parties have lost ground. I would still suggest that these results owe more to the fact that the two major parties have to date sought a compromise that nobody really wants than any earthquake within the political landscape. But what happens next is anyone’s guess.
This result is not a positive one for the health of our country, as the Conservative Party will certainly push further towards a damaging no-deal position to counter the insurgent Brexit Party. What the Labour Party do next is perhaps more interesting, they have sat on the fence for so long, trying to avoid losing votes from their remain supporting membership, but also Brexit supporters from their Northern strongholds – they must certainly now fall down on one side or another, advocating the confirmatory referendum, as they have flirted with.
The current makeup of parliament will not allow a no-deal to pass, so presuming the Conservative’s move in that direction with their new leader a general election is surely inevitable – meaning likely another extension to article 50, sure to anger the “just get out” wing of the Brexit supporting public even more.
So could we have a general election with the Conservative’s advocating a hard, or no deal, Brexit, and Labour supporting remain? A defacto Brexit election. How would this play out? Likely another hung Parliament, possibly with a Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, and Green coalition government as a result? Or would the Brexit Party support return to the Conservatives and the northern Labour support fall enough in order for the Conservatives to hold onto a slender majority – presumably putting us back in the same situation we are now of a stalemate in Parliament?
The only definitive way out of this bind is surely returning the decision to the people. But even that is fraught with difficulties, the divide would further damage our country in what is likely to be an even more heated referendum.
If the result is as tight again, especially in the other direction, we will have not healed our divided nation. The fact is, Brexit is a black hole, and however we come out the other side it will inevitably suck us in one way or another.
Brexit was never about the EU, it was about the state of our country and how it is being eaten up by greed and private capital. Misinformation was spread over a number of years about the EU, they became the bogeyman. And now, the troubles this country and its people face will only worsen in the face of Brexit Britain.
There should have always been a built-in margin in the EU referendum in 2016, such huge constitutional changes should not be decided by such slim margins. But what’s done is done, and we must now face the fallout – unlike those who got us into this mess in the first place, who are insulated from the damage they have caused.
What happens next is anybody’s guess – but it certainly won’t be pretty.
The country is a shambles, and may never recover its dignity on the world stage – what a cataclysmic mess. Rest in peace Britannia, killed by lies, false promises, empirical style propaganda, vested interests, and gross ineptitude.